![]() ![]() Will it be 12 weeks? 16 weeks? I don't know. I don't feel the US is there yet, and because of that the duration of the first phase will be longer than 8-9 weeks. One of the reasons the duration was about 8-9 weeks in China and Singapore was because of a "whole of government" response to the crisis. The duration to get to this state was about 8 weeks. There is spare contact tracing and ICU capacity. Singapore, where Black Hat postponed their event, was through their initial phase around the start of March as well and is operating under the "new normal" - heightened awareness, public messaging, observation and testing. They have entered their "new normal" of having gotten past the worst impacts of overloaded hospitals, in essentially about 9 weeks after it was publicly noticed at the end of December 2019. The worst of SARS-2-Cov hit China around the end of January, about week 5, and by March 2nd China started going back to work. Here are my thoughts and generalizations, round numbers, and guesstimates: It caused us to postpone DEF CON China 2.0 at the end of January and now people are wondering if we will have to cancel DEF CON 28 in Las Vegas. ![]() ![]() I've been observing, in great detail, the progression of the coronavirus around the world. ![]()
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